За 10 месяцев добыча нефти в РФ сократилась примерно на 0,74 mbd, до 8,6 mbd. Это относительно умеренное падение.
Пик падения добычи в России - 1996 г, 6,04 mbd. Экспорт при этом падал примерно до 2,3 mbd.
Таким темпом до уровней 1996 г падать (8,6-6,04)/0,74 = около 3 лет.
Естественно, подобный расчет очень приблизителен. В конце концов, в первом приближении*, любая функция - линейная.
На практике, если произойдёт снижение цен на нефть - велика вероятность ускоренного падения нефтедобычи в России, т.к. доля затрат на нефтесервис в бизнесе российских нефтяников - велика (якобы - около 66%!). Но для этого цены должны упасть, как минимум, до уровней февраля 2026 г. Пока до этого далеко.
P.S. Вообще говоря, тема падения добычи нефти в России - важна и интересна. В 1987-1996 гг падение добычи сильно ударило и по российскому нефтяному бизнесу, и по государственным финансам в целом. СССР этого не пережил.
Сама идея создать общий экономический интерес для примирения враждующих сторон - не так уж плоха. Примерно по такой схеме произошло примирение Германии и Франции после двух мировых войн.
"США стремятся возобновить поставки российского газа в Европу через Украину.
Эта идея призвана добиться энергетического перемирия между Москвой и Киевом, но встречает сопротивление в европейских столицах".
What we need is a global mass mobilization to save the climate to move governments to take more decisive action... Data centers consume so much water and energy that would otherwise be used for the needs of communities. They contribute tremendous amounts of carbon emissions that worsen the climate crisis. Trump is going all the way for AI, partly because it will need the massive energy that can only be provided by the fossil-fuel industry that is one of his main backers. In targeting data centers we would be hitting two birds with one stone, or two existential threats to the planet and humanity: climate change and AI. There are 12,250 to 12,660 data centers globally. 1,136 to 1,189 are hyperscale—indeed, city-size--facilities to serve the massive cloud and AI computing needs of Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and other Silicon Valley giants. More are on the way. They are being constructed not only in the Global North but also in the Global South. ... it was global mass action that stopped globalization in its tracks, that showed that it was leading not to prosperity but to great inequality, greater poverty, and global economic crisis. If no one any longer talks about the so-called benefits of globalization, which was the mantra we kept hearing in the late 1990’s and the 2010’s, that was because of global mass mobilization.
None of the corrupt and vain emperors of history exacted of the sycophant poets in their retinues anything like the discipline imposed upon the poets of Procter and Gamble and Ford Motors. The copywriter is immeasurably more restricted in his choice of subject-matter than a court poet ever was. Moreover, the merit of his poetry is not measured by the pleasure it gives a single patron ; it is measured by its influence on sales statistics. Like the court poet, the copy-writer must praise not only his patron, but also the entire socio-economic system which keeps his patron rich and powerful. Milton, attacking the system of literary patronage of his time, was eloquent in his contempt for the 'trencher fury of the riming parasite.' A contemporary prophet able to look into the twentieth century might well have said to him, 'You haven't seen anything yet. Wait until you see the institutional ads of the great corporations during World War II!'
> It is difficult to become inspired by those facets of American life familiar and dear to all of us without sounding as if you were leading into a message from the National Association of Manufacturers on the necessity of maintaining the free enterprise system. Indeed, it is even difficult to speak reverently of the courage of our soldiers and the debt we owe the dead without sounding as if you were shortly going to remind the reader how much he also owes to Nash-Kelvinator's contribution to the war effort. #VenalPoets #SellingFreeEnterprise @bsmall2@nerdica.net
🧵 Paul Goodman said thoughtful approaches were "swamped"... > For every one person reached by...authors, advertisers and publicity men and economic propagandists with goods or ideas to sell reached tens of thousands. The distrust of words does not come from reading writers who honestly state their feelings and convictions, even if those feelings and convictions are extremely gloomy. The distrust arises from long experience with an unending stream of venal poetry, venal speech, venal writing.. #VenalWriting @bsmall2@nerdica.net
🧵 > ... ... restoration of poetry[words, the internet!??...] to its traditional state as one of the most important of the communicators and creators of the values a civilization lives by awaits, therefore, a time when something less than 98 percent of radio time and 85 percent of space in mass-circulation magazines is devoted to selling something... @bsmall2@nerdica.net
People are hardly to be blamed, when they encounter so much of it[venal word use], if they begin to wonder if there is any other kind. The preemption by the venal poet of the common value-symbols of our culture, the symbols of courage, of beauty, of domesticity, of patriotism, of happiness, and even of religion, for the purposes of selling, that is, of advantaging the speaker at the expense of the hearer, has left the disinterested poet with practically no unsullied symbols to work with other than obscure ones hauled up out of The Golden Bough or the Upanishads, and practically nothing in common human experience to write about except those negative moods that the ghastly cheerfulness of the advertising pages of the Ladies' Home Journal has no use for.
I. A. Richards put a similar writing in _Speculative Instruments_.. and he praised Irving Babbit for good work in a similar vein.. I haven't found anytthing on advertising and tacky word use in general from Babbit though..
The overlapping, militantly moderate Majority Democrats and The Bench were conceived and backed by billionaire hedge fund manager and Democratic donor Stephen Mandel. Majority Democrats is meant to be a “party within a party” that will counter the challenges from the left (by stealing some of its rhetoric) and will bring us “the next generation of Democratic leaders-willing to challenge the establishment and break with party orthodoxy.” It is further funded by a lineup of big tech, private equity and crypto-donors, and dispenses money through a complex of PACs and Super PACs. Overall, Majority Democrats backed 14 House candidates, mostly incumbents, six of whom ran uncontested, one of whom withdrew (Jared Golden), most of the rest of whom won their primaries. The Bench supported 14 House newcomers, 10 of whom won including Brooks and Forstag.(11) A look at the policy sections of Bernie Dogs’ websites reveals general and vague statements or limited reforms for improving healthcare, cost of living, better things for working people, fairer taxes, etc, but no commitments to specifics such as Medicare-for-All as a single payer system, Green New Deal, and virtually nothing on Palestine or Iran — in other words, what has become mainstream Democratic semi-populist rhetoric.
🧵 > Before the campaign could even get off the ground, Democratic Party Big Whigs in Washington, including from the party’s Democratic Senate Campaign Committee, invaded Maine with a corps of DC- and New York-based consultants fresh from their losses in the primaries on behalf of #HaleyStevens in Michigan, #DanGoldman in New York, and #ColinAllred in Texas... these pros knew just what to do. For all practical purposes they took over the campaign and wrote scripts for Jackson that excluded the word “genocide” in reference to Gaza. #TroyJackson @bsmall2@nerdica.net
🧵 > The arcane procedures and folkways of the Caucus, and indeed the legislative process itself, are further pressures for partisan conformity on major issues. That is why, despite their popularity, the Green New Deal, Medicare-For-All, serious taxes on the rich, etc, never made it to a floor vote in the House. It will be impossible to make much progress on the issues without replacing the current House leadership of Hakeem Jeffries....who raised $15 million for re-election despite facing no real challenge. #HakeemJeffries #MoneyCorrupts @bsmall2@nerdica.net
A trend. Tired of the failure of the Democrats to aid working-class people, some union workers are running as independents for the House and Senate. Dan Osborn, former union and strike leader, who is running a second time for the Senate from Nebraska is the best known. He has set up the Working Class Heroes Fund to support others. Now three others are running for the House and endorsed by the fund: Nate Powell, union firefighter (WA 5); Bill Hill commercial fisherman (AK at large); and union firefighter Mike Thurow (WI 6). These are white working-class guys running on anti-billionaire, anti-corporate, generally progressive populist platforms in red states or districts where Democrats fear to tread and DSA has little strength. There’s even a chance some may win. How will #DSADemocrats relate to them? #DanaOsborn #NateaPowell #BillHill #MikeThurow
Llega una nueva propuesta de Silent Hill, el mítico juego de Konami. Por si no lo conoces este es una franquicia de videojuegos de terror y supervivencia creada por Keiichiro Toyama. Los primeros cuatro títulos de la serie, Silent Hill, 2, 3 y 4: The Room, fueron desarrollados por Team Silent, grupo interno perteneciente a KCET. Las obras posteriores fueron creadas o desarrolladas por grupos no relacionados con el equipo original.
La serie está fuertemente influenciada por el terror psicológico y presenta a protagonistas sin cualidades o destrezas físicas fuera de lo normal; en contraste con otros títulos de terror y supervivencia. Las mecánicas de juego giran en torno a resolver acertijos, explorar el mapa en busca de objetos interesantes y combatir monstruos. Veinte años después de su creación, roocker666 encontró monstruos inéditos que Konami había mantenido dormidos en los ficheros del primer Silent Hill de 1999, plataforma PlayStation.
Una muestra de estos en video: mpv https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lkuSjZNiABw&t=136s
Luego de todo este prologo te aviso que ya esta casi entre nosotros Silent Hill: Town Fall, con disponibilidad en plataformas PC via steam y PlayStation 5 , el youtuber Menos Trece, nos lo muestra antes de su lanzamiento oficial en su canal:
1er capitulo: mpv https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ELIiA2Xdrrc La serie la seguirá en su canal secundario youtube.com/@MasMenosTrece
Por si tienes algún inconveniente al reproducir con mpv, lo mas seguro es que este desactualizado yt-dlp (principalmente en Debian, sucede esto). Espécificamente este error.
Tira de los trixie-backports: sudo tu_editor /etc/apt/sources.list.d/debian.sources (O en /etc/apt/sources.list, dependiendo de cómo tengas configurado tu Debian) sudo apt update sudo apt install -t trixie-backports yt-dlp Si tras actualizar, mpv sigue fallando, instala Node.js. sudo apt install nodejs En las versiones recientes de yt-dlp, YouTube requiere un motor de JavaScript externo en tu sistema para poder descifrar correctamente ciertas firmas de los videos. Una mierda, pero es lo que toca. En Arch btw!, no me pasa.
Und wir sollten das beste und ehrlichste soziale Netzwerk nicht vergessen: Den #Amateurfunk #Hamradio. Einfach Gerät einschalten und CQ rufen auf unseren Frequenzen. Ach ja, und Antworten nicht vergessen.
Seit einigen Tagen arbeite ich intensiv mit der App OSMand auf dem iPhone zur Navigation mit dem Fahrrad. Die Erfahrungen sind sehr positiv, allerdings muss man sich zunächst mal mit dem Tool beschäftigen und es kennen lernen. OSMand ist sehr mächtig und das kann verwirren. Was schätze ich besonders im Vergleich zu Komoot: Komplette Offline Navigation, sehr schnelles Re-Routing wenn man von der Strecke abkommt, vielseitiges Kartenmaterial, transparentes Preismodell und dann keine elende Werbung mehr, Verzicht auf die "Community".
I don’t live in an ivory tower. More like a badly constructed tree fort. That’s where the music comes from — not from polish or privilege, but from weather, memory,…
Du meinst, wie Du bilder aus deiner Fotosammlung auf dem Handy hochladen kannst? Ich fuerchte, das ist recht speziell. Aber allgemein wuerde ich sagen, dass Du dafuer eine entsprechende App fuer Friendica brauchst, eventuell funktioniert auch eine Mastodon App mit Friendica, und dann muss die App die Berechtigung fuer deine Fotos haben...
But the planter class kept too much land. The traitor elite kept too much dignity. The Lost Cause kept too much cultural power. White terror kept too much room to organise. The courts gave Jim Crow too much legal cover. And the federal government abandoned Black Reconstruction too soon. That is the Confederate afterlife. See less
The panic is not that people have stopped loving music.
The panic is that people have started doing maths.
They are looking at rent, food, transport, debt, wages, childcare, medicine, exhaustion — and then looking at a concert ticket swollen with dynamic pricing, service fees, parking fees, VIP tiers, merch markups, drink prices, and miserable stadium seats — and saying:
**No. This is not worth my survival.**
And now the industry acts wounded.
“Why are young people killing concerts?”
They are not killing concerts.
They are refusing to bankrupt themselves for joy that has been fenced off, branded, tiered, algorithmically hyped, and sold back to them at landlord prices.
Music did not become unaffordable by accident. It was made that way by the same forces that make housing unaffordable, healthcare terrifying, food expensive, transport unreliable, and rest feel like a luxury. The worker produces the wealth, builds the venues, staffs the bars, drives the trucks, cleans the floors, streams the songs, buys the shirts — and then cannot afford the civilisation built out of their own labour.
That is the obscenity.
They rob people of leisure, then scold them for not participating in culture. They drain people’s lives of joy, then call them boring. They turn every human need into a payment plan, then act shocked when the public begins choosing groceries over spectacle.
People still want music.
They want dance, sweat, sound, communion, romance, rebellion, bass in the ribs, strangers singing the same chorus, the holy little madness of being alive in a room full of noise.
What they do not want is to be treated as wallets with legs.
And here is the great lie cracking open: **the industry is not music.**
The ticket platform is not music. The promoter is not music. The stadium is not music. The brand campaign is not music. The “cultural moment” manufactured by managers, bots, playlists, and corporate partnerships is not music.
Music is older than markets.
Music survives in small venues, basements, house shows, local festivals, workers’ choirs, queer dance nights, punk rooms, street corners, community halls, bedrooms, garages, churches, warehouses, and friends making strange beautiful noise because they have to.
The collapse of the overfed concert machine would not be the death of music.
It would be the choking of a parasite that mistook itself for the host.
So when they ask why the blue dots are multiplying, why the seats are empty, why the tours are cancelled, why the public is no longer rushing to save the luxury spectacle, the answer is brutally simple:
**You cannot underpay people, overcharge them for survival, and then demand they keep every entertainment empire alive.**
People want lives.
They want beauty.
They want leisure.
They want experiences.
They want music.
But they are tired. They are priced out. They are insulted. And increasingly, they are refusing to confuse participation with submission.
Pay for what genuinely delights you. Support the artists and spaces that treat people like human beings. Let the bloated machine tremble.
## **Blue Dot Fever: The Worker’s Purse and the Death of the Stadium God**
The panic is not that people have stopped loving music.
The panic is that people have started doing maths.
They are looking at rent, food, transport, debt, wages, childcare, medicine, exhaustion — and then looking at a concert ticket swollen with dynamic pricing, service fees, parking fees, VIP tiers, merch markups, drink prices, and miserable stadium seats — and saying:
**No. This is not worth my survival.**
And now the industry acts wounded.
“Why are young people killing concerts?”
They are not killing concerts.
They are refusing to bankrupt themselves for joy that has been fenced off, branded, tiered, algorithmically hyped, and sold back to them at landlord prices.
Music did not become unaffordable by accident. It was made that way by the same forces that make housing unaffordable, healthcare terrifying, food expensive, transport unreliable, and rest feel like a luxury. The worker produces the wealth, builds the venues, staffs the bars, drives the trucks, cleans the floors, streams the songs, buys the shirts — and then cannot afford the civilisation built out of their own labour.
That is the obscenity.
They rob people of leisure, then scold them for not participating in culture. They drain people’s lives of joy, then call them boring. They turn every human need into a payment plan, then act shocked when the public begins choosing groceries over spectacle.
People still want music.
They want dance, sweat, sound, communion, romance, rebellion, bass in the ribs, strangers singing the same chorus, the holy little madness of being alive in a room full of noise.
What they do not want is to be treated as wallets with legs.
And here is the great lie cracking open: **the industry is not music.**
The ticket platform is not music. The promoter is not music. The stadium is not music. The brand campaign is not music. The “cultural moment” manufactured by managers, bots, playlists, and corporate partnerships is not music.
Music is older than markets.
Music survives in small venues, basements, house shows, local festivals, workers’ choirs, queer dance nights, punk rooms, street corners, community halls, bedrooms, garages, churches, warehouses, and friends making strange beautiful noise because they have to.
The collapse of the overfed concert machine would not be the death of music.
It would be the choking of a parasite that mistook itself for the host.
So when they ask why the blue dots are multiplying, why the seats are empty, why the tours are cancelled, why the public is no longer rushing to save the luxury spectacle, the answer is brutally simple:
**You cannot underpay people, overcharge them for survival, and then demand they keep every entertainment empire alive.**
People want lives.
They want beauty.
They want leisure.
They want experiences.
They want music.
But they are tired. They are priced out. They are insulted. And increasingly, they are refusing to confuse participation with submission.
Pay for what genuinely delights you. Support the artists and spaces that treat people like human beings. Let the bloated machine tremble.
Plötzlich Facebook-Lobbyistin: Irlands einst höchste Datenschützerin wechselt die Seite
Jahrelang stand Helen Dixon in der Kritik, weil sie als irische Datenschutzbeauftragte zu nachsichtig mit Tech-Konzernen gewesen sei. Jetzt arbeitet sie für eine Anwaltskanzlei, die Meta in Verfahren gegen ihre Behörde vertreten hat. Für Datenschützende kommt das nur wenig überraschend.
As of today, during the night, the backlog of >5 Mio. worker queue items has been resolved and new posts are delivered on time again.
Hopefully it stays that way.
Counter measures were: - increasing count of CPU cores from 8 to 24 vCPUs - increasing memory size from 20GB to 65GB - redundant setup of Friendica behind a load balancer, so that two virtual servers can work on the backlog
Whileas CPU and RAM are back to their old settings, the redundant setup will stay and maybe extended to a third virtual machine.
Ah, and Nerdica.net now runs redundant on two VMs behind a load balancer. Sadly, sometimes both backends are offline, but in general it got a little better...
While the nation continues to process the shock and grief caused by the murder of far right activist Charlie Kirk, vile and thoughtless MAGA partisans are feverishly endeavoring to politicize the crime, blaming Democrats and liberals for allegedly...
Wenn ich mich bei Hubzilla einloggen will, erhalte ich folgende Meldung: Apologies but this site is unavailable at the moment. Please try again later. Zum Glück hab ich auf Nerdica dieses Profil wieder eingerichtet. Eigentlich nur für den Notfall. Aber der ist jetzt da.
Jetzt hab ich die Meldung: Gateway Timeout The gateway did not receive a timely response from the upstream server or application. Apache Server at hub.netzgemeinde.eu Port 443
Today I deleted my Facebook account, so here is a quick update on other ways to find me. * Fediverse: @Nekodojo * Bluesky: @g.nekodojo.org * Discord: nekodojo * Linked in: linkedin.com/in/nekodojo (no posts but DM works)
bsmall2
in reply to Brian Small • • •#VenalPoets #SellingFreeEnterprise
@bsmall2@nerdica.net
bsmall2
in reply to bsmall2 • • •Paul Goodman said thoughtful approaches were "swamped"...
> For every one person reached by...authors, advertisers and publicity men and economic propagandists with goods or ideas to sell reached tens of thousands. The distrust of words does not come from reading writers who honestly state their feelings and convictions, even if those feelings and convictions are extremely gloomy. The distrust arises from long experience with an unending stream of venal poetry, venal speech, venal writing..
#VenalWriting
@bsmall2@nerdica.net
bsmall2
in reply to bsmall2 • • •> ... ... restoration of poetry[words, the internet!??...] to its traditional state as one of the most important of the communicators and creators of the values a civilization lives by awaits, therefore, a time when something less than 98 percent of radio time and 85 percent of space in mass-circulation magazines is devoted to selling something...
@bsmall2@nerdica.net
Brian Small
in reply to Brian Small • •🧵
#AdvertisingCorrupts .. #SymbolDrain #RisingTideOfInsignificancy
I. A. Richards put a similar writing in _Speculative Instruments_.. and he praised Irving Babbit for good work in a similar vein.. I haven't found anytthing on advertising and tacky word use in general from Babbit though..