Our president just fired head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics because the most recent jobs numbers didn't match his feelings about how good the economy is. He did not explain WHY he thought the report was incorrect. Naturally many people now say we won't be able to trust future reports.
To me, faking such numbers seems difficult.
Dr. Reich, @rbreich as a former Secretary of Labor and guy who knows about The Economy can you tells us what might be tell-tale signs of a "Fake Jobs Report" ?
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myrmepropagandist
in reply to myrmepropagandist • • •I think some people are also alarmed by the "revisions" to numbers in previous months. I remember this always happening in previous reports but these revisions have been very large.
What are some reasons you might need to make a big revision?
Kathmandu
in reply to myrmepropagandist • • •When the economy is going up or down, the model lags, so the revisions when actual data comes in are bigger.
Larger revisions are a sign that the economy is going up or down faster.
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Larry Joe
in reply to Kathmandu • • •What is the source of the Job Report numbers? Is it the state job reports or is it some sort of cross country Federal assessment? Be interesting to find out. Based on TACO Turd's nose dive into the National Reporting I would think it would be a system he can disguise the real numbers so as to meet his political wishes.
Graydon
in reply to myrmepropagandist • • •Four things.
Management is about performative reinforcement of social consensus reality. Quantified analysis is frequently in conflict with the SCR; participating in quantified analysis is frequently seen as impossibly expensive because of this.
The signalling system is not uniform; information moves erratically and inconsistently. A report intended to identify state at a point in time needs updating as information arrives. (E.g., excess death rates.)
Nazani
in reply to myrmepropagandist • • •myrmepropagandist
in reply to Nazani • • •@Nazani
The finance guys I know use those numbers in their models and they really need them to be based on reality or the models won't work.
Fake numbers will break SO MANY things.
Adriano
in reply to myrmepropagandist • • •Nazani
in reply to Adriano • • •Adriano
in reply to Nazani • • •Adriano
in reply to Adriano • • •myrmepropagandist
in reply to Adriano • • •@adriano @Nazani
"Sorta"
Everyone Disliked That
(Some deep very nerdy part of me is offended on an elemental level by the notion of numbers with a large data set over many years, that I have used many times, being messed with. It's like seeing a cathedral torn down. A library burned. The monumental statues of civilization firebombed... )
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myrmepropagandist
in reply to myrmepropagandist • • •@adriano @Nazani
You know? I have been struggling to understand the despair from some liberals about what he's been doing to the Whitehouse.
Yes, it's ugly, but the things people like about that building are just because "It Has Always Been That Way" ... and Carter put solar panels on it once and I thought that seemed cool and want them back.
But the feeling about the data? it's rather like what White House History people are feeling. I will be more understanding now.
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myrmepropagandist
in reply to myrmepropagandist • • •@adriano @Nazani
Normally I think of the White House as the plantation-house-looking-proto-mc-massion.
I just don't like it very much.
Doreen32128 ready to rumble!
in reply to myrmepropagandist • • •myrmepropagandist
in reply to Doreen32128 ready to rumble! • • •The American Flag drains are kind of hilarious. I hope they keep those ... "never forget" and all that.
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myrmepropagandist
in reply to myrmepropagandist • • •@Doreen32128 @adriano @Nazani
Ah yes, the stars are anti-slip treading. And the powerful visitors will trample the flag under their expensive shoes and they tip their drinks to let them run away between the bleached-white bars of our flag.
Very elegant. It speaks to me. I love architecture.
Listerine Lavender Mint
in reply to myrmepropagandist • • •Doreen32128 ready to rumble!
in reply to Listerine Lavender Mint • • •Robert Link
in reply to myrmepropagandist • • •myrmepropagandist
in reply to Robert Link • • •@phaedral @adriano @Nazani
Yes. That is obviously more important than statistics or architecture.
We are doing all the things one would do before ethnic cleansing. All of the steps and even the budget.
I wish I could explain it away. But that is where this is going.
Coach Pāṇini ®
in reply to myrmepropagandist • • •@adriano @Nazani
Just gonna leave this here.
Pino Carafa
in reply to Coach Pāṇini ® • • •WeLL tHaT tEsT iS sHiT tHe OnLy aCcUrAtE ReSuLt wAs ThE LiBrArY oNe 🤪
( And yes I am too warm and too cold at the same time 🤔🥴 )
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llewelly
in reply to myrmepropagandist • • •the industry that called itself "big data" set its sights on destroying reliable data. They made a deal with the Crystaline Entity and now everyone will suffer.
Nazani
in reply to Adriano • • •Nazani
in reply to myrmepropagandist • • •Jimmy
in reply to myrmepropagandist • • •myrmepropagandist reshared this.
myrmepropagandist
in reply to Jimmy • • •@jhavok @Nazani
Where did this happen and how could I read about it?
Jimmy
in reply to myrmepropagandist • • •@Nazani It's referred to as the Blue Book, Fitch Ratings publishes it (don't know if it's the only one). I had a neighbor in business school getting his PhD by figuring out and testing proxy numbers for the official ones. There were a lot of different numbers that could be accessed that reflected the reality on the ground vs official publications. One that I recall is railroad freight schedules, as these track internal manufacturing very closely.
I love getting nerds to talk...
Michael Busch
in reply to myrmepropagandist • • •A note:
The head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics got fired by Trump for not lying for him.
The Labor Secretary is apparently okay with that.
myrmepropagandist
in reply to Michael Busch • • •But how could you lie about something that's been done the same way for decades? I mean, I guess I can think of ways but come on.
Michael Busch
in reply to myrmepropagandist • • •I remember when Trump tried to make the head of the weather service lie about where a hurricane was going.
No lie is too blatant.
myrmepropagandist
in reply to Michael Busch • • •@michael_w_busch
I keep thinking about that thing where Trump would change how much he thought his business was worth based on "his feelings at the time" and I assume he thinks numbers aren't connected to anything and you can just say any number you want. I mean when he wants a number to be large each time he says it, it grows exponentially*.
*I have the sudden urge to do a regression on "trump numbers" and find out exactly how they tend to grow and warp over time...
Joe Mansfield
in reply to myrmepropagandist • • •@michael_w_busch
This comment of his says everything you need to know about his relationship with how numbers actually work.
“We're going to get the drug prices down ... 1000%, 600%, 500%, 1500%, numbers that are not even thought to be achievable"
How this man ever ran a business is beyond me.
myrmepropagandist
in reply to Joe Mansfield • • •@helvick @michael_w_busch
But I was so excited to get a check when I picked up my pills. Are you telling me that's not gonna happen?
John Maxwell
in reply to myrmepropagandist • • •Flaming Cheeto
in reply to myrmepropagandist • • •myrmepropagandist
in reply to Flaming Cheeto • • •@PizzaDemon
ooh thanks
Lyle Solla-Yates
in reply to myrmepropagandist • • •myrmepropagandist
in reply to Lyle Solla-Yates • • •@Lyle
Or even the best chatbot, as there isn't much difference.
Doreen32128 ready to rumble!
Unknown parent • • •myrmepropagandist
Unknown parent • • •@btrinen @BagOfNails @Kathmandu
Thank you for helping me decide what to read first. This will save so much time. I was overwhelmed and didn't know where to start understanding this.
myrmepropagandist
Unknown parent • • •@btrinen @BagOfNails @Kathmandu
This page has the good stuff:
bls.gov/jlt/jltdef.htm
Data Definitions
Bureau of Labor Statisticsmyrmepropagandist
Unknown parent • • •@btrinen @BagOfNails @Kathmandu
"job openings" seems like one of the softer parts of this data.
Graydon
in reply to myrmepropagandist • • •Garrett Wollman
Unknown parent • • •Garrett Wollman
in reply to Garrett Wollman • • •myrmepropagandist
in reply to Garrett Wollman • • •@wollman @btrinen @BagOfNails @Kathmandu
That's really too bad as I imagine that things may be unstable in that sector because of ICE. How many people have just left rather that wait to be chased out?
Garrett Wollman
in reply to myrmepropagandist • • •