In the absence of a miraculous baby boom or politically unpopular mass immigration, a growing number of experts urge a gradual downsizing. Takao Komine, senior researcher at the Japan Center for Economic Research, a think tank, is among those calling for “smart shrink”, a strategy in which population decline is assumed and public services are consolidated and made more efficient.
Local governments are already retooling housing, transport and welfare for the elderly. Toyama city has built a light-rail transit system designed for older people and subsidises housing construction around its stations. It has heavily invested in a care centre that has helped tug people back to the city centre, raising property prices and taxes. The care centre is built on the site of a primary school that closed in 2004.
Toyama and Nanmoku are at the vanguard of what Matanle calls a “turning point in human history”. The number of over-60s in the world passed one billion in 2019. By 2050 it will be 2.1 billion, according to the World Health Organisation, and the populations of 85 countries, mostly in Europe and Asia, will be shrinking. “The global population will peak around 50 years from now, in about 2070 or so, and then decline continuously from there. There’s very little we can do about it now,” says Matanle. Everybody should be watching what happens in Japan. This is their future.
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